EPL round of 19

Tonight shall be my maiden soccer post, although it does not equate to my first bet. Basically, this blog was created simply as the title suggests, a portfolio of the tips I recommend. Before getting down to the actual breakdown, I wish to sort things straight.

1. Always bet within your financial and physiological means. In essence, never go beyond what you can afford to lose and what your heart cannot take.

2. Winning and losing is all part of the game. This applies not only to the footballers on the pitch, it extends to fans as well as punters. There is no such thing as an infinite run of wins as all good things must come to an end, just make sure you are not betting at that end.

3. Never fight a battle you cannot afford to lose. Never bet when you are unsure. Always do your homework. Just as how much I would like you to listen to my picks but eventually it all boils down to your own research ( i always believe in no free lunches), like how you may be researching my blog now.

LIV VS WAT

This is a match that some would view as David vs Goliath, but I say it is not even anywhere close to such, simply because the gulf of quality is too large. Not only that, the two are in such contrasting forms at the moment it is hard to suggest for any slightest inkling of a Watford vitory.

Even though every match in the league is no easy banker but they are those close to it. This will be one of them. Liverpool are in a rich vein of form at the moment, scoring 11 in the last 3 games without reply, whereas Watford have not won their last six, going by the record of 0w2d4l 2f9a. Their closest was a 0-0 draw with ManCity and Reading at the beginning of the month but there was nothing more to it. So Liverpool can score and Watford cannot defend. Simple logic, albeit the fact Watford have not lost by a margin of two goals or more, except for Arsenal and Chelsea, winning 3-0 and 4-0 respectively.

Yet, I have a strong gut feeling this Liverpool team will not slackening as many would predict. Yes they have the best run in the Premiership at the moment and for the upcoming match, Benitez may not field his strongest XI. Perhaps this is so, but there is no confirming till he names his lineup. But this being the start of a grueling run of 4 games in 10 days, it may not be wise to drop points on the first day. However, till then, I believe Watford will go to Anfield like Portsmouth and ManCity, just to name a few, packing their defence, hoping to achieve a point. Thus, to get an early lead may not be easy, and can be expected to wait, just like Fulham the last time. Hence, a small punt can be placed on D-H and the bulk I would suggest placing it on Liv -1.75. Anything less than a 2-0 for Liverpool will be a headscratcher.

ARS VS BB

Arsenal has not have the best of runs this season although they still can play devastating football on their day. However, Emirates Stadium are not a fortress yet and although unbeaten at their new home, Aston Villa, Everton, Middlesbrough, Newcastle and Portsmouth have all come away from North London with draws.

This does not bode well with Wenger and the Arsenal faithful. On the other hand, it is interesting to note that after those draws, the next home game would end in a 3-0 win for the Gunners. This fact does shake things up if one simply thinks the upcoming Balckburn game will end in a stalemate.

They do have players slowly coming back from injury but the noticable misses, Henry, Ljungberg and Gallas, can still be felt. As compared to Blackburn missing their main striker, McCarthy, I am guessing Arsenal will be able to cope better with losses. Although their mean age is young, they are generally playing well and with Blackburn conceding on their last 4, it may give a gleam of hope to Arsenal fans.

Blackburn have tried playing 5 defenders and using 3 across the back recently, making it look like a 5-2-3, with Bentley and Gamst Pedersen playing wide and suppporting the main striker. The idea is for Balckburn to keep it tight at the back while attacking on the counters. Now that McCarthy is suspended, neither 5-2-3 or the 4-4-2 can work as well as they have no form striker that puts away goals.

This being said, there is a chance a for Arsenal to win this 3-0 as in the past against Blackburn last season, but from an investing point of view, it is best left alone.